Best Bets for the 94th PGA Championship

09/08/2012 § Leave a comment


The Wanamaker Trophy (via PGA.com)

This weekend, the PGA Championship finds itself back at a Pete Dye(-abolical) designed track, where sand dunes and windy conditions will feature heavily, as they did in 2010 at Whistling Straights; Dustin Johnson was famously penalized that year for grounding his club in a what looked more like a small heap of spilled brown sugar than what was curiously and unfairly deemed to be a bunker.

The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, South Carolina measures a ghastly 7950 yards at its most extended length, contains four par-5s, and plays to a par 72.  It cruelly combines links style golf with plateau greens surrounded by run-off bowls to difficult pitching areas, or worse, waste areas.  The champion golfer this year will be the player that is able to consistently put himself in position off the tee, shape a variety of shots into tough-to-hold greens, get out of jail when necessary, and as always wield a hot flat-stick.

In trying to predict the winner, I’ve compiled several lists below of players in this year’s field by “key stats”.  I acknowledge that some of these stats are highly correlated (for example, scrambling takes sand saves into account, and both depend very much on putting).  The combination of stats I’ve chosen bears this correlation in mind and implicitly weights the skills that the golf course requires accordingly.

While this method is not statistically rigorous by any means, it is meant to be easily accessible and interpretable.

1. Total Driving – the top 5 ranked players in the field in driving distance plus driving accuracy

John Rollins
Hunter Mahan
Tiger Woods
Bo Van Pelt
Jason Dufner

2. Scrambling – the top 5 ranked players in the field in “up-and-down” percentage

Ian Poulter
Jim Furyk
Chris Stroud
Phil Mickelson
Steve Stricker

3. Sand Saves – the top 5 ranked players in the field in sand save percentage
Jim Furyk
Justin Rose
Keegan Baddeley
David Toms
Matt Kuchar

4. Par-5 scoring – the top 5 ranked players in the field in par-5 scoring average
Bubba Watson
Rory McIlroy
Zach Johnson
Kyle Stanley
Keegan Bradley

5. Par-3 scoring – the top 5 ranked players in the field in par-3 scoring average

Keegan Bradley
Luke Donald
Geoff Ogilvy
Zach Johnson
Justin Rose

6. Strokes Gained Putting – top 10 ranked players in the field in strokes gained against the field from all putting distances
Aaron Baddeley
Luke Donald
Zach Johnson
Ben Curtis
Brendt Snedeker
Bo Van Pelt
Phil Mickelson
Keegan Bradley
Ken Duke
Jim Furyk


via GolfDigest.com

Of the 24 different names above, only one man appears on four of the lists: Keegan Bradley.  The awkward, 6’3″ visor-donning, narrow-shouldered, hunched, soon-to-be-illegal-putter-wagging 26-yr-old not only sets himself apart from the rest on this list, but also comes into this week off a win at the WGC last week following a gutsy par save on the 72nd hole.  Oh yeah, and Keegan just happens to be the defending PGA Tour champion.  Vegas has Keegan listed at 41 to 1.

Jim Furyk
Jim Furyk (via TourProGolfClubs/Flickr Creative Commons)

Two players emerge from the above stats with the distinction of making three of the lists: Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson.  Despite overall consistent play this season, Furyk has had two significant disappointing finishes.  The first came at the US Open in June where Furyk’s tornado generating lash of a swing broke down in the closing holes.  The second came just 3 days ago with a closing double bogey which yielded the trophy to Keegan.  Jim will no doubt be motivated this week and he’s got the game to back it up.

Zach Johnson tee shot
Zach Johnson (via TourProGolfClubs/Flickr Creative Commons)

Zach on the other hand has had many positives to take away from this season including two victories, the second coming at the John Deere Classic 3 weeks ago.

Jim is currently 51:1 for the championship while Zach sits at 46 to 1.

Four players appear on two of the lists above: Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose, Luke Donald, Bo Van Pelt.

I’m going to tell all of you right now not to waste your money on Phil, even at 51 to 1, the highest I can recall it being at a major in some time.  He missed the cut at the Open Championship, had a near miss at the US Open, and generally appears to be struggling with his game.

Justin Rose is coming off a T5 finish at Firestone and looks to bounce back from a disappointing and surprising missed cut at the British.  He is comfortable on links style golf courses and is currently paying 31 to 1.

Luke Donald continues to top the list of best players in the world without a major, and perhaps this will finally be his week.  Also a comfortable player growing up playing links golf, he tied for 5th at Royal Lytham this year and is coming off a top 10 at Firestone.  At 19 to 1, Luke strikes me a a good bet.

Finally, Bo Van Pelt has quietly gone about his business over the last couple of seasons to sneak into the top 25 on the world rankings.  Like Rose, Bo missed the cut at the British but wound up in the top 10 at the Bridgestone last week.  Bo is currently paying 46 to 1.

Tiger Woods smiling
Tiger (via TourProGolfClubs/Flickr Creative Commons)

Of the rest who appear anywhere on the lists above, I will simply say this:  Tiger Woods seems due.  Everyone acknowledges this.  And yet at 10 to 1 and the pre-tournament favourite, I have my doubts.  With the amount of trouble that Kiawah Island presents, I just can’t see him getting the job done, as much as I’d like to.  Tiger has struggled all season on par-5s, an area of the game that he used to dominate, and this appears to be frustrating him.  With four par-5s on the track this week, I foresee Tiger getting impatient and trying to put a little extra into his driver.  That’s when things can start to go wayward for him, literally.  On top of that, Tiger’s struggles with his putter have been well documented of late, and he has had a particularly tough time judging the speed of the greens.  If he can’t figure out the pace early at Kiawah, he has no chance.

If you like to dabble with the odd fun bet, do so with caution when it comes to golf.  In my experience, this is the most difficult sport to predict, even when you take 2 hours out of your day to rake through recent performances when you should be studying for a law final the next day.  That is all for now.

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