A easy, nifty trick to predict future performance in baseball

13/07/2014 § Leave a comment

Buried in Rany Jazayerli’s post from last month about the streaking Royals was this little idea:

The Royals are hitting .261/.314/.372. They’ve scored 304 runs.
The Royals’ opponents are hitting .252/.315/.383. They’ve scored 286 runs.

Which team is under-performing (and vice versa) compared to the other?

You can dig into both those numbers and realize where the conundrum lies: this is a .500 baseball team. Jazayerli points to KC’s biggest rival for Central Division supremacy, the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit’s slash lines: 272/.325/.431, while their opponents had hit .259/.322/.409 at the time he was writing.

There’s a team that’s clearly better than their opponents. They’re making more contact, and they’re showing more power. They’re doing more with more.

Which team is likely to finish first? Well, when Jazayerli wrote, the Royals were in first place, by half a game, over the Tigers. Headed to the All Star break, the Bengals lead the Royals by 7.5.

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