12/08/2012 § Leave a comment
In the words of the venerable Rob Thomas, it’s 3 am and I must be lonely. Why else would I be awake, with little intention of falling asleep, blogging about sports?
Well, it’s quite simple.
For one, the final day of competition in London is well underway. But of course more importantly, play resumes at Kiawah in a mere hour and a half as heavy rain and the threat of thunder and lightning suspended third round action in the PGA Championship.
A look ahead to the final day of action reveals some great story lines which I will briefly set up and give my unabashed predictions for. First, however, I’ll hold myself accountable to my Wednesday evening pre-tournament predictions.
1. Keegan Bradley
I was pretty high on this kid coming into the tournament off a win last week and defending his title from last year. Keegan got off to a fast start Thursday, getting it to -5 at one point and making me look like a genius early. However, he didn’t handle the blustery conditions on Friday too well, and began to fade. Despite righting the ship for the most part on his first 16 holes of round 3 (he will go back out early to complete his final two holes), Keegan sits at +1 for the tournament and probably too far back to realistically contend. A top 10 is not out of the question, though.
2. Jim Furyk
Jim never really seemed to be in the mix this week, though a steady 3rd round 70 has set him up for a possible strong finish, especially since he can enjoy his morning while many others head out early to complete round 3).
3. Zach Johnson
Zach was hanging around quietly until 3 straight bogeys before the stoppage of play more or less derailed him. Perhaps the stoppage was just what he needed in order to recompose and finish respectably. And I do expect Zach to get it going again and get into the top 10 or 15 tomorrow, especially with the possibility of more rain and gusty winds, which he handled well on Friday relative to the rest of the field.
4. Justin Rose
It’s been a strange tournament for the young Englishman. He dropped 5 birdies in each of his first and third rounds, but a 79 on Friday has taken him out of contention. If he can experience some more streakiness that he has enjoyed at times this week, look for him to get it under par for the tournament.
5. Bo Van Pelt
Here’s someone to watch out for. Bo sits on the 3rd round clubhouse lead, while the four players currently ahead of him on the leaderboard have their back nines still to complete. The weather in the early morning could be determinative of Bo’s chances. If the leaders and those others lurking around him fall back in the challenging winds, then he could find himself in the final group. If not, he’s got to take it low in round 4 to have a chance.
6. Luke Donald
Luke continues to disappoint at the majors. A double bogey in each of his rounds has highlighted his unsteady play.
7. Phil Mickelson
Lefty has surprised me. After barely holding it together on Thursday, Phil carded the second lowest round (71) in the tough conditions in round 2. Still, he sits at +1 and would be shocked if he’s a factor tomorrow.
Oh yeah, Eldrick.
Well, as always fans and commentators alike were ready to crown him after Friday (even without the 36-hold lead!). Tiger struggled with the flat stick, as I worried he might, early in round 3. He goes out shortly to try to tidy up am 8-footer for par to avoid dropping to E for the tournament with 28 holes remaining. Maybe the extra time that he’ll be able to play in his traditional Sunday red will be the antidote for Tiger and his majorless streak, now at over 4 years. Your guess is as good as mine, but I would think he would need to get back at least 2 of the shots he dropped for a 73 at worst to conclude round 3.
To rule him out, however, is always a mistake.
It’s hard not to like Rory‘s chances going into the final day. His attitude seems to be world class, particularly demonstrated when his tee shot on the 3rd hole on Saturday lodged itself in the branch of a tree. With poise, Rory took an unplayable lie and the accompanying penalty stroke and promptly got up-and-down for his par.
A win for Rory tomorrow would reignite discussion around his anticipated dominance for the next decade, much like how Tiger took control of things in the 2000s. Rory, 23, would be the youngest player since World War II to have won two major championships.
On the other end of the spectrum, Vijay Singh has seemingly come out of nowhere to challenge and become the oldest player to win a major, at 49. Vijay was completely off my radar coming into this week, but sits in a tie atop the leaderboard on the strength of his 69 on Friday (compared to a PGA Championship field average high of 78) and trying to cap off a bogey free front nine in round 3, a round that he will complete with Tiger as surely have his competitive juices flowing.
Other notables include Adam Scott, who is trying to do what Rory did a year ago at the US Open in bouncing back immediately after giving away the previous major down the stretch. Adam appears to have found his equanimity at Kiawah, and hopes to fully exorcise the demons from Royal Lytham. I expect Adam to play his way into the final grouping for round 4.
Two others that have caught my attention going into the final day are Trevor Immelman and Ian Poulter. Their international experience and proficiency on links courses have allowed them to stay in the hunt, shooting respective rounds of 72 and 71 on the tough Friday. Trevor’s a past major winner (2008 Masters) while Poulter has often found himself in the mix on Sunday only to fail in finding the decisive gear. I look to both to make a charge.
09/08/2012 § Leave a comment
The Wanamaker Trophy (via PGA.com)
This weekend, the PGA Championship finds itself back at a Pete Dye(-abolical) designed track, where sand dunes and windy conditions will feature heavily, as they did in 2010 at Whistling Straights; Dustin Johnson was famously penalized that year for grounding his club in a what looked more like a small heap of spilled brown sugar than what was curiously and unfairly deemed to be a bunker.
The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, South Carolina measures a ghastly 7950 yards at its most extended length, contains four par-5s, and plays to a par 72. It cruelly combines links style golf with plateau greens surrounded by run-off bowls to difficult pitching areas, or worse, waste areas. The champion golfer this year will be the player that is able to consistently put himself in position off the tee, shape a variety of shots into tough-to-hold greens, get out of jail when necessary, and as always wield a hot flat-stick.
In trying to predict the winner, I’ve compiled several lists below of players in this year’s field by “key stats”. I acknowledge that some of these stats are highly correlated (for example, scrambling takes sand saves into account, and both depend very much on putting). The combination of stats I’ve chosen bears this correlation in mind and implicitly weights the skills that the golf course requires accordingly.
While this method is not statistically rigorous by any means, it is meant to be easily accessible and interpretable.
1. Total Driving – the top 5 ranked players in the field in driving distance plus driving accuracy
Bo Van Pelt
2. Scrambling – the top 5 ranked players in the field in “up-and-down” percentage
3. Sand Saves – the top 5 ranked players in the field in sand save percentage
4. Par-5 scoring – the top 5 ranked players in the field in par-5 scoring average
5. Par-3 scoring – the top 5 ranked players in the field in par-3 scoring average
6. Strokes Gained Putting – top 10 ranked players in the field in strokes gained against the field from all putting distances
Bo Van Pelt
Of the 24 different names above, only one man appears on four of the lists: Keegan Bradley. The awkward, 6’3″ visor-donning, narrow-shouldered, hunched, soon-to-be-illegal-putter-wagging 26-yr-old not only sets himself apart from the rest on this list, but also comes into this week off a win at the WGC last week following a gutsy par save on the 72nd hole. Oh yeah, and Keegan just happens to be the defending PGA Tour champion. Vegas has Keegan listed at 41 to 1.
Jim Furyk (via TourProGolfClubs/Flickr Creative Commons)
Two players emerge from the above stats with the distinction of making three of the lists: Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson. Despite overall consistent play this season, Furyk has had two significant disappointing finishes. The first came at the US Open in June where Furyk’s tornado generating lash of a swing broke down in the closing holes. The second came just 3 days ago with a closing double bogey which yielded the trophy to Keegan. Jim will no doubt be motivated this week and he’s got the game to back it up.
Zach Johnson (via TourProGolfClubs/Flickr Creative Commons)
Zach on the other hand has had many positives to take away from this season including two victories, the second coming at the John Deere Classic 3 weeks ago.
Jim is currently 51:1 for the championship while Zach sits at 46 to 1.
Four players appear on two of the lists above: Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose, Luke Donald, Bo Van Pelt.
I’m going to tell all of you right now not to waste your money on Phil, even at 51 to 1, the highest I can recall it being at a major in some time. He missed the cut at the Open Championship, had a near miss at the US Open, and generally appears to be struggling with his game.
Justin Rose is coming off a T5 finish at Firestone and looks to bounce back from a disappointing and surprising missed cut at the British. He is comfortable on links style golf courses and is currently paying 31 to 1.
Luke Donald continues to top the list of best players in the world without a major, and perhaps this will finally be his week. Also a comfortable player growing up playing links golf, he tied for 5th at Royal Lytham this year and is coming off a top 10 at Firestone. At 19 to 1, Luke strikes me a a good bet.
Finally, Bo Van Pelt has quietly gone about his business over the last couple of seasons to sneak into the top 25 on the world rankings. Like Rose, Bo missed the cut at the British but wound up in the top 10 at the Bridgestone last week. Bo is currently paying 46 to 1.
Tiger (via TourProGolfClubs/Flickr Creative Commons)
Of the rest who appear anywhere on the lists above, I will simply say this: Tiger Woods seems due. Everyone acknowledges this. And yet at 10 to 1 and the pre-tournament favourite, I have my doubts. With the amount of trouble that Kiawah Island presents, I just can’t see him getting the job done, as much as I’d like to. Tiger has struggled all season on par-5s, an area of the game that he used to dominate, and this appears to be frustrating him. With four par-5s on the track this week, I foresee Tiger getting impatient and trying to put a little extra into his driver. That’s when things can start to go wayward for him, literally. On top of that, Tiger’s struggles with his putter have been well documented of late, and he has had a particularly tough time judging the speed of the greens. If he can’t figure out the pace early at Kiawah, he has no chance.
If you like to dabble with the odd fun bet, do so with caution when it comes to golf. In my experience, this is the most difficult sport to predict, even when you take 2 hours out of your day to rake through recent performances when you should be studying for a law final the next day. That is all for now.